[19] Later that day, the FMS reported that Tomasi had peaked as a Category 4 severe tropical cyclone, with 10-minute sustained winds of 185 km/h (115 mph). Parts of Northeast socked by waist-deep snow. Yasa continued its weakening trend as it turned southward, dropping to Category 1 tropical cyclone status late on December 18. [6] Over the next couple of days, the system gradually moved westwards before the FMS classified it as a tropical depression during December 11, while it was located about 280 km (175 mi) to the west of the Fijian Dependency of Rotuma. [2][4] The BoM issued two seasonal forecasts for the Southern Pacific Ocean, for their self-defined eastern and western regions of the South Pacific Ocean. (A tutorial on El Niño and La Niña can be found at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center website.) [7] Deep convection near the system was initially only fragmented; however, environmental conditions were assessed as being conducive for development, with low vertical wind shear, good upper-level outflow and sea surface temperatures near 29 °C (84 °F). NIWA and MetService analyses indicate 9 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TC) could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2019 and April 2020. While cyclones in this area of the Pacific Ocean may occur year-round, December through April are usually the most active months. [5] As a result, this made Joti one of the earliest tropical cyclones ever recorded within the basin. Keep betting pools off this page - there are separate forum pages for those. The 2020–21 South Pacific cyclone season is a currently ongoing period of the year when most tropical cyclones form within the South Pacific Ocean to the east of 160°E. [4], The system that was to become Tropical Cyclone Joti was first noted by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) during October 30, while it was located about 1,000 km (620 mi) to the north-east of Port Villa in Vanuatu. [7], The system that was to become Tropical Cyclone Kina was first noted on November 6, while it was located just to the east of Tuvalu. [18] Tomasi remnants moved towards the south-southeast, before it was last noted during April 5. This expectation for tropical cyclone activity is close to normal for the region, but with elevated activity east of the International Date Line especially during the late season between February and April. The 2019 Pacific hurricane season was a moderately active season which produced nineteen named storms, though most were rather weak and short-lived. Following the same day, another disturbance formed and intensified into a depression in the next day. [13][14] The remnants of Prema were subsequently monitored over the next few days, as they moved towards and through French Polynesia, before they were last noted during March 6. Cite error: The named reference "TDS Dec 11 00z" was defined multiple times with different content (see the, 2020–21 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season, Australian Tropical Cyclone Intensity Scale, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, a brief interaction with Tropical Depression 01F, List of Southern Hemisphere cyclone seasons, Tropical Cyclone Guidance for Season 2010/11 for the Fiji and the Southwest Pacific, 2020/21 RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Outlook, Southwest Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook - October 2020, "South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Outlook for 2020 to 2021", Tropical Disturbance Summary December 8, 2020 09z, Significant Tropical Weather Advisory December 8, 2020 11z, Tropical Disturbance Summary December 11, 2020 09z, "Tropical Depression 01F Disturbance Advisory #4 (00Z)", "Final Warning, Remnant of Tropical Cyclone 04P", "Tropical Cyclone Yasa 1st of the season for South Pacific", "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TD 02F) (0330Z)", "Tropical Depression 02F Disturbance Advisory #1 (00Z)", "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (Invest 91P)", "Tropical Cyclone 05P (Five) Warning #01", "Tropical Cyclone Yasa Disturbance Advisory 5 (13Z)", "TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 012", "Severe Tropical Cyclone Yasa Disturbance Advisoru Number 8 (00Z)", "Tropical Cyclone 05P (Yasa) Warning #14", "Tropical Cyclone Yasa Disturbance Advisory #15 (18Z)", "Tropical Cyclone Zazu, Storm Warning 054 (00Z)", Tropical Cyclone Potential Bulletin December 16, 2020 23z, "Category 2 Cyclone Zazu Update: Yellow Alert for Niue", "Niue's only wharf slammed by massive waves whipped up by Cyclone Zazu", "Tonga hit by Cyclone Zazu as second system strengthens", Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-East Indian Ocean and the Southern Pacific Ocean 2020, "Fiji reports 4 deaths due to tropical cyclone Yasa", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2020–21_South_Pacific_cyclone_season&oldid=995941462, Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone seasons, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License, Category 5 severe tropical cyclone (Australian scale), Category 2 tropical cyclone (Australian scale), This page was last edited on 23 December 2020, at 18:14. a La Nina pattern along the equator off the Pacific coast of South America; The closest season in comparison is 2005, which churned up 28 named storms, the … [11][12] Due to the deteriorating structure of the system, the FMS ceased advisories on Tropical Depression 01F at this time. The Atlantic Hurricane Basin. The season was characterised by a very strong El Niño event, which resulted in eleven tropical cyclones occurring to the east of the International Dateline. During the season tropical cyclones were monitored by the meteorological services of Australia, Fiji, French Polynesia and New Zealand. The 1982–83 season was one of the most active and longest South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons on record, with 14 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. During El Niño, the area of tropical Pacific convection and its associated Hadley circulation expand eastward from the western Pacific, sometimes extending to the west coast of South America. [11] Please keep off-topic and political discussion to a minimum, and respect the guidelines listed to the right. [1], During the season, ten of the fourteen tropical cyclones observed to the east of 160 E were severe tropical cyclones, with 5 of them occurring in the French Polynesia region which represented one more than was experienced in the same area over the previous 13 seasons. [13], 01F caused heavy rain in American Samoa, with a peak rainfall total of 62 mm (2.44 in) recorded at the Pago Pago International Airport. Extremely Active Atlantic Hurricane Season. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NPMOC), al… [13][14] The system was named Prema by the FMS during the next day, after it had developed into a category 1 tropical cyclone and peaked, with 10-minute sustained winds of 85 km/h (50 mph). [13][14] After it had been named: Prema moved south-eastwards and started to gradually weaken, before it degenerated into a depression during February 27. The 1982–83 South Pacific cyclone season was one of the most active and longest South Pacific tropical cyclone seasons on record, with 16 tropical cyclones occurring within the South Pacific basin between 160°E and 120°W. The 2051-52 South Pacific cyclone season was a slightly active season. This is the forum page for the 2020-21 South Pacific cyclone season. But let's not forget there were other significant storms that season, too. Tropical cyclones affect Pacific island countries in most years and can impact coastal regions even when they remain well offshore. This hurricane season has rewritten the record books. [18], During the next day, Tomasi continued to intensify and move south-westwards, while the alert for Niue was upgraded to a gale warning. The first tropical cyclone of the season is brewing across the South Pacific and it can bring impacts to Fiji and Vanuatu. The service noted that these figures were revised in August with the expectation of 19 to 25 named storms, seven to eleven hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes. Plus, big heat for the East and winter weather out West. Just about 12 hours later on December 14, Yasa rapidly intensified to Category 4 status on the Australian scale as a defined eye began to clear on infrared satellite imagery. [3], In addition to contributing towards the Island Climate Update outlook, the FMS and the BoM issued their own seasonal forecasts for the South Pacific region. Another disturbance formed near the existing 01F and rapidly intensified into a depression. [8], During December 10, a shallow tropical depression formed to the west of the Northern Cook Island: Penrhyn and started to move south-eastwards towards French Polynesia. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. [8] The degenerating system subsequently passed to the west of Fiji during November 13, before it was last noted during November 16, as it passed over the island of Efate in Vanuatu but no damage was reported. The United States Armed Forces through the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Naval Pacific Meteorology and Oceanography Center (NPMOC), also monitored the basin and issued unofficial warnings for American interests. [18][19] Over the next couple of days, the system moved south-westwards and passed about 140 km (85 mi) to the southeast of Penhryn, as it gradually developed into a tropical cyclone. The incidence of cyclones farther west, where sea temperatures are warmer, is higher. [5][6], During November 3, the FMS reported that Joti had peaked with 10-minute sustained winds of 110 km/h (70 mph), which made it a Category 2 tropical cyclone on the Australian scale. The season officially started on November 1, 2020 and will end on April 30, 2021, however a tropical cyclone could form at any time between July 1, 2020 and June 30, 2021 and would count towards the season total. [19] During April 2, the system started to rapidly weaken, with its high clouds being sheared away, before it degenerated into a mid latitude depression. Yasa continued its rapid intensification trend and further intensified to the equivalent of a high-end Category 4 tropical cyclone on the Saffir–Simpson scale (SSHWS), developing a well-defined and very clear eye, while continuing to become more symmetrical. Yasa formed on December 11 and became a Category 5 cyclone, impacting Fiji. The 1964 Pacific typhoon season was the most active tropical cyclone season recorded globally, with a total of 39 tropical storms forming. [8][9] The FMS subsequently estimated during the next day that the system had reached its peak intensity, with 10-minute sustained winds of 75 km/h (45 mph) during November 11. [9] By 00:00 UTC on December 12, both the JTWC and the FMS reported that the shear had displaced the system's deep convection to the northeast, leaving the centre of circulation fully exposed. It began on November 1, 2006 and ended on April 30, 2007. These conditions produce an anomalous upper-level, ridge-trough pattern in the subtropics, with an amplified ridge over the subtropical Pacific in the ar… The 2006–07 South Pacific cyclone season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. However, if a tropical depression intensify to the south of 25°S between 160°E and 120°W it will be named by MetService in conjunction with the FMS. The BoM also predicted that the Eastern Region between 165°E and 120°W, had a 45% chance of seeing activity above its average of 6 tropical cyclones. Should a tropical cyclone move out of the basin and into the Australian region it will retain its original name. There is relatively low disagreement between the analogues for the total number of cyclones for this season, with the one exception being the 2007/08 season. It hampered the system intensification due to a brief interaction with Tropical Depression 01F. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a more active Atlantic hurricane season than normal for 2020, and [31], Within the Southern Pacific a tropical depression is judged to have reached tropical cyclone intensity should it reach winds of 65 km/h (40 mph), and it is evident that gales are occurring at least halfway around the center. The Australian tropical cyclone region extends from 90°E to 160°E, south of the equator, and is part of a continuum of tropical cyclone activity that extends from the coast of Africa to French Polynesia in the South Pacific (Fig. [4] Within their outlook the FMS predicted that between four and six tropical cyclones would occur within the basin compared to an average of around 7. *Spanish translations, when available, are courtesy of the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office. Includes the waters of: the North Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, … [13] Gale-force winds caused some serious damage to a wharf, on the atoll of Penhryn. [13] On the atoll of Manihiki, the high seas reached the settlement, with minor damage to coconut trees reported as a result. The Western Pacific Basin has been eerily quiet so far in 2019, with roughly half the tropical cyclone activity of an average year through July. [9] A few hours later, the FMS estimated maximum 10-minute sustained winds to be at 55 km/h (34 mph), with a minimum central atmospheric pressure of 998 hPa (29.47 inHg). Five of these tropical cyclones went on to affect the island nation of French Polynesia, which it was thought had not been affected by a tropical cyclone since another very strong El Nino episode in 1905-06. U.S. citizens living in or traveling to the region should monitor local weather reports and take other appropriate action as needed. [12] The system subsequently moved in a counter clockwise loop, which allowed it to develop further and it was declared to be a tropical cyclone and named Nisha by the FMS during February 22. [15] The JTWC also noted a Fujiwhara interaction with 01F, which briefly hampered the development of the system. After making landfall, Yasa moved into an area of unfavourable conditions, causing the storm to rapidly weaken, with Yasa weakening into a Category 3 severe tropical cyclone later that day. The first tropical cyclone of the season developed a day before the season officially began on October 30, while the last tropical cyclone of the season dissipated on May 16. [18] Early on March 31, the NPMOC reported that the cyclone had peaked with 1-minute sustained winds of 189 km/h (117 mph), which made it equivalent to a Category 3 hurricane on the SSHWS. It have become extratropical on November 20. [3] At least four of the tropical cyclones were expected to intensify further and become severe tropical cyclones, while it was noted that a Category 5 severe tropical cyclone could occur during the season. RSMC Nadi attaches a number and an F suffix to tropical disturbances that form in or move into the basin while the JTWC designates significant tropical cyclones with a number and a P suffix. 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